Advertising effectiveness… democratic primary 2020

Advertising effectiveness

Why Advertising effectiveness is important?

Who is getting the best Return on Advertising Spend (ROAS) so far?

Bernie Sanders

Campaign manager: Faiz Shakir

Total Raised: $134,069,993

Total Spent: $116,525,682

Cash on Hand: $17,566,341

Media Expenditures: $35,321,864 if and Or the budget was used for…
909 delegates
$38,858 per delegate Ads spending
Twitter followers 11M
$3 per followers
Facebook followers 5.4M
$7 per followers
Instagram followers 4.6M
$8 per followers
YouTube 365K
$96.8 per followers

Joe Biden

Campaign manager: Greg Schultz

Total Raised: $76,200,914

Total Spent: $68,039,835

Cash on Hand: $8,163,331

Media Expenditures: $13,371,187 if and Or the budget was used for…
1215 delegates
$11,005 per delegate Ads spending
Twitter followers 4.2M
$3 per followers
Facebook followers 1.6M
$8 per followers
Instagram followers 1.4M
$10 per followers
YouTube 13K
$1028.6 per followers

There are other factors which are not listed here but should be considered in our analyse. However the numbers suggest Biden has a smaller campaign but more effective in delegates number. Sanders campaign as he offers change is more complicated. Change may be a desire for most people but as it requires changing in personal behaviours it becomes more difficult choice and as it may have some greater risk involved, so many people may resist it and vote for status quo or other choices which involves less risk. That may be one of the reason that Sanders’ campaign has not been so successful as the number suggest that even though people like his message but they have not voted for him in the number that was expected. Wanting change for many are like Christmas wishes and resolutions but how many of us actually take on action and stay committed to our Christmas resolution? However the other reason is probably the big negative and misinformation campaign as we call it the noise in communication process against Sanders by establishment and big special interest groups that impact people decision making and their voting behaviour. For that reason alone Sanders’ campaign has much more difficult job to convince people and impact voting outcome positively.

 

Communication Process ModelHowever here I will not focus on the impact of negative advertising on campaign as I have extensively covered that subject in my earlier works and I refer people who are interested, to read those papers. I will rather try to look at advertising effectiveness from voters demographic, media use and campaign message/messages.

 

2020 electorate USAPew Research Center projects that the 2020 election will mark the first time that Hispanics will be the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the electorate, accounting for just over 13% of eligible voters – slightly more than blacks. This change reflects the gradual but continuous growth in the Hispanic share of eligible voters, up from 9% in the 2008 presidential election and 7% in the 2000 election. The black eligible voter population has grown about as fast as the electorate overall, meaning their share has held constant at about 12% since 2000.

 

electorate 2020 USAAccording to Pew Research Center in raw numbers, a projected 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in 2020, compared with 30 million blacks. The population of Asians eligible to vote will reach an estimated 11 million in 2020, which is more than double the 5 million who were eligible to vote in 2000, accounting for 5% of next year’s electorate.

Taken together, this strong growth among minority populations means that a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite in 2020, up from about a quarter in 2000. This increase is at least partially linked to immigration and naturalization patterns: One-in-ten eligible voters in the 2020 election will have been born outside the U.S., the highest share since at least 1970.

Both Sanders and Biden has been targeting heavily Hispanics and African Americans voters as they understand that those demographic could change the outcome, Biden Hispanics video on YouTube published 16 May 2019, had 41K view by the date of 8th March 2020 and Sanders Hispanics YouTube video published 28 January 2020 had 31K view on the date of 8th March, however at the moment it does look like that Latino vote share is split between Sanders and Biden and none of them have clear lead, and what Super Tuesday revealed about black voters was that they’re not a monolith even thought Biden received strong support from African Americans, but the primaries also confirmed black voters aren’t a unified voting bloc.

In general it look like that Sanders have better return from media but as delegates are most important element in an election campaign, Biden have the best overall Return on Advertising Spend (ROAS) so far, he has been able to have much more effective campaign with a smaller budget and better conversion. Sanders’ campaign has been more successful in media reach but have problem with conversion as the conversion rate to delegates has not been as successful as Biden’s campaign.

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